In recent times, we most often have become the witnesses of the situation, when the directed efforts to find any resolution of Karabakh conflict are limited by elaboration of basic principles of conducting negotiation process. The problem is that alternatives for Karabakh conflict resolution do not suit either of the conflict sides and the process of settlement reaches deadlock or transforms into “infinite” continuation.
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, presidents and foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan have often stated about the progress in the negotiation process of Nagorno Karabakh (NK) conflict resolution but unfortunately nobody knows what kind of progress it is.
In November 2007, in Madrid, the OSCE Minsk Group co–chairs presented the basic principles of NK peace settlement to the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the content of the document had not been published. At present, the basis of Nagorno Karabakh negotiation process is the so-called “Madrid principles”.
Aggression against South Ossetia in 2008 and the beginning of the 5th day war between Russia and Georgia changed the political map and situation in the South Caucasus. In spite of all attempts of the international community to maintain the territorial integrity of Georgia, Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. The West had repeatedly been stating that Kosovo case should not be considered as a precedent for non-recognized states of post-Soviet space. European diplomats should consider the fact, that the force majeure can change the de-facto situation. In case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia it was inevitable.
Nagorno Karabakh could be reviewed as the first applicant for international recognition after Kosovo, as it, in consideration of several facts, conditions and characteristics, was correspond to the formula, worked out for Kosovo by Americans. A “formation corresponding to the criteria of a state could be recognized as a subject of international law”, was quite acceptable in case of our problem as NK meets all criteria of a state formation.
First of all, NK Republic has got a strong playing card – the result of referendum (referendum about independence on 10 December, 1991). It is overlooked that Republic of Azerbaijan hasn’t got any juridical relation to Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) which declared its independence taking into account the constitution of Soviet Union.
Secondly, NKR is a mono-ethnic formation with the most organized and functional system of governance and authority from all of the non-recognized states on the post-Soviet space.
Thirdly, Karabakh conflict is typical with its legal aspects and has not any hint of the post-Soviet space’s conflicts.
However, the war in South Ossetia changed radically the balance of power in the region and all conflict’s sides should take into account the reality. The defeat of Georgia, lose of Abkhazia and the South Ossetia was an alarm for Azerbaijan about the impossibility to solve Karabakh conflict by means of armed aggression. Maindorf Declaration of 2008 signed by Presidents of Republic of Azerbaijan, Republic of Armenia and Russian Federation became a response to Azeri daily statements to solve Karabakh conflict by means of war. Under this document, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan took commitment “to contribute to enhancing the situation in the South Caucasus and ensuring peace, stability and security via political settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict based on the principles and norms of international law and decisions and documents deriving thereof.”
This document was the first one, signed after many years’ negotiations between sides, though it has a declarative nature.
Two years after Maindorf Declaration, the so-called Madrid principles of Nagorno Karabakh negotiation process were published. By those principles:
- 5 territories of security zone which are under the control of Nagorno Karabakh should be returned to Azerbaijan;
- providing a corridor between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh;
- providing international guarantees for maintenance of peace and security;
- guarantying the rights of internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former residence;
- Nagorno Karabakh will have an interim status with an opportunity to determine its future and final legal status taking into account the free expression of popular will;
The published points of this document were met both in Armenian and Azeri societies as defeatist and caused an internal political collision. Nevertheless, the negotiations are conducted in the framework of a/m defined principles.
Armenia is always adherent to peace negotiation process. Position of Azerbaijan is saturated with antagonisms. On the one hand Azerbaijan declares that the peace process of conflict settlement is preferable and it is not exhausted, on the other hand threats are heard from high rank statesmen to conduct armed operations, though it was the resort to force that brought forth current situation more than a decade ago. Military rhetoric stays an inherent part of Azeri political dictionary. Many do not attach importance to these threats referring mainly to internal purpose, or as practical impossibility to restart the war now. However, negotiation process perhaps is one of the most effective means of avoiding burst of a military conflict. Unfortunately the negotiations will not have positive results, if legal and plenipotentiary representatives of NKR do not take part in it. The fact that Azerbaijan refuses now to recognize Karabakh as a conflict side and sit at the negotiation table means that Armenia is, if we can put it so, a mediator in negotiations between Karabakh and Azerbaijan. In any case, Armenian leaders cannot give any kind of consent to the final document without NKR participation in negotiation process and its agreement to sign it. This situation is not acceptable for Azerbaijan. Not only Washington, Moscow and Paris, but also Azerbaijan realizes that NK participation in peace talks will, sooner or later, be inevitable.
Not all conflicts resemble in their political, legal approaches. There is an impression that the legal approach is not used during the negotiations on Karabakh conflict. In other words the international community is trying to avoid the basic documents concerning the NK declaration of independence. By existing constitution of the Soviet Union Karabakh population voted in support of independence which held in a general referendum on December 10, 1991. The right of Azerbaijan Republic within the borders of former Azerbaijan SSR is recognized, but it is passed over in silence that Azerbaijan has declared to be the assignee of Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (ADR) 1918-1920)) while Nagorno Karabakh has never been a part of the ADR. Nagorno Karabakh was forcefully placed by Stalin under the jurisdiction of Soviet Azerbaijan when Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was ceased to exist. The resolution of Karabakh conflict in the legal framework is the most perspective and effective variant for settlement.
Is it advantageous to drag on the conflict? We can list all negative and positive points of this problem. By reserving status-quo for already 18 years, Nagorno Karabakh got an opportunity to reconstruct the economic infrastructure destroyed during the war, stabilized the social life, also fortified the defense lines and strengthened its positions as an independent country which has taken a democratic course of development. On the other hand the economic isolation of Nagorno Karabakh does not give a chance to get integrated into the economic space of the region, in European security structures and finally to become a full subject of the international relations. Taking into consideration the fact that Azerbaijan is not going to recognize the independence of de-facto existing Nagorno Karabakh Republic in the nearest future, the process of conflict resolution will take a long time.
In this case, in the presence of resolution methods, the “Cyprus model” could be the best version for Armenia and Naghorno Karabakh but even that was constantly rejected by Azerbaijan. In other words Azerbaijan and international society recognize de-facto existing Nagorno Karabakh Republic, but not de-jure, which means that NK will never be a part of Azerbaijan or Armenia and won’t be officially recognized as an independent country, but will exist and function as an independent state formation. On behalf of Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia this model is already a compromise, taking into account that NK has been existed as an independent state for 18 years already.
The communication problems caused by 5th day war between Russia and Georgia fastened the Turkish-Armenian talks on normalizing relations (which had already some progress) aimed to establish diplomatic relations and open a border. However, Turkey’s political solidarity with Azerbaijan in Nagorno Karabakh issue and its attempts to link Turkish-Armenian relations within this context can delay the process of opening borders and establishing diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey. Speedy resolution of NK conflict or its present de-facto situation maintenance depends also on US and Russia national interests in the South Caucasus. This region is considered as a zone of their geopolitical and economic interests and these factors do not play the least role in Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution. More than once, the officials of United States, Russia and France stated their positions concerning that issue. The NK problem could not and must not be linked with the issue of Turkish-Armenian relations.
Anyway, Nagorno Karabakh has a real political card to say NO to any kind of peace settlement which can be a real danger for its independence and nation.
